القدس المحتلة / أظهرت برقية مسربة عبر موقع ويكيليكس ان رئيس الإستخبارات العسكرية الأسبق (أمان)، عاموس يدلين، قال خلال العام 2007 وقبل سيطرة حركة حماس على القطاع، إنه "سيُسر" إن فرضت الحركة سيطرتها على قطاع غزة. وتكشف برقية بعثها السفير الأميركي في تل أبيب، ريتشارد جونس، الى وزارة الخارجية الأميركية بعد لقائه بيدلين في العام 2007 وقبل سيطرة حماس على قطاع، ان يدلين قلل من حجم العلاقة بين حركة المقاومة الإسلامية والجمهورية الإسلامية في ايران. وجاء اللقاء بين الإثنين في اعقاب المواجهات التي اندلعت في تلك الفترة بين عناصر حركة فتح وعناصر حركة حماس في القطاع، واستعرض يدلين خلال الإجتماع التهديدات التي تواجه اسرائيل ووضع ايران في المرتبة الأولى تليها سوريا ومن ثم حزب الله وأخيراً حماس. وقلل يدلين من حجم النفوذ الإيراني في غزة وقال إنه طالما لا يوجد ميناء جوي أو بري لحماس في غزة فإن تأثير ايران سيكون محدوداً. كما أبدى سروره إن تمكنت الحركة من السيطرة على القطاع، لأن ذلك سيتيح لإسرائيل التعامل مع القطاع ككيان عدو. ورداً على ملاحظة السفير الأميركي الذي قال ان ذلك سيحصر سيطرة محمود عباس في الضفة الغربية فقط، قال يدلين إن سيطرة حماس على القطاع ستتيح لإسرائيل إمكانية التعامل مع الحركة كتنظيم "أقل من دولة"، وأن اسرائيل بمقدورها في حالة كهذه ان تتعاون مع حركة فتح في الضفة الغربية. وحذّر يدلين ان مواجهة حربية بين اسرائيل وسوريا قد تندلع بسرعة رغم عدم رغبة الطرفين بذلك. يذكر ان هذه الأقوال جاءت قبل 3 شهور من العملية الإسرائيلي في دير الزور السورية. وحسب يدلين فإن النظام السوري لن يصمد الحرب قائلاً إن "وظيفة اسرائيل ليست الحفاظ على هذا النظام الشرير". وقال إن سوريا قامت بعد حرب لبنان الثانية "بتجهيزات جنونية" تحسباً لإي مواجهة مع اسرائيل، وان النظام السوري يبدي ثقة كبيرة جداً بالنفس. وتكشف وثيقة أخرى فحوى لقاء يدلين مع العضو اليهودي في مجلس النواب الأميركي، روبرت فكسلير، في العام 2008، أي بعد سيطرة حماس على القطاع عسكرياً. وقال يدلين خلال إن الفلسطينيين اقاموا كيانين منفصلين في الضفة والقطاع وأن "ابو مازن وفياض يسيطرون في الضفة الغربية بدعم من اسرائيل، فيما اقامت حماس كيانا ارهابيا في القطاع". وأضاف انه في حال استمر اطلاق القذائف من غزة نحو اسرائيل، فإن الأخيرة لديها القدرة للوصول لكل عضو في حماس، إن في بيته أو مكان عمله. نص برقية جونس بالكامل: VZCZCXRO4198OO RUEHROVDE RUEHTV #1733/01 1641638ZNY SSSSS ZZHO 131638Z JUN 07FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIVTO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1629INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITYRHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITYRHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITYS E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001733 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2017TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS KWBG LE SY ISSUBJECT: MILITARY INTELLIGENCE DIRECTOR YADLIN COMMENTS ONGAZA, SYRIA AND LEBANON Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, Reason 1.4 (b) (d) آ¶1. (S) Summary. During a June 12 meeting with theAmbassador, IDI Director MG Amos Yadlin said that Gaza was"number four" on his list of threats, preceded by Iran,Syria, and Hizballah in that order. Yadlin said the IDI hasbeen predicting armed confrontation in Gaza between Hamas andFatah since Hamas won the January 2006 legislative councilelections. Yadlin felt that the Hamas military wing hadinitiated the current escalation with the tacit consent ofexternal Hamas leader Khalid Mishal, adding that he did notbelieve there had been a premeditated political-leveldecision by Hamas to wipe out Fatah in Gaza. Yadlindismissed Fatah’s capabilities in Gaza, saying Hamas couldhave taken over there any time it wanted for the past year,but he agreed that Fatah remained strong in the West Bank.Although not necessarily reflecting a GOI consensus view,Yadlin said Israel would be "happy" if Hamas took over Gazabecause the IDF could then deal with Gaza as a hostile state.He dismissed the significance of an Iranian role in aHamas-controlled Gaza "as long as they don’t have a port."Regarding predictions of war with Syria this summer, Yadlinrecalled the lead-up to the 1967 war, which he said wasprovoked by the Soviet Ambassador in Israel. Both Israel andSyria are in a state of high alert, so war could happeneasily even though neither side is seeking it. Yadlinsuggested that the Asad regime would probably not survive awar, but added that Israel was no longer concerned withmaintaining that "evil" regime. On Lebanon, Yadlin felt thatthe fighting in the Nahr Al-Barid camp was a positivedevelopment for Israel since it had "embarrassed" Hizballah,adding that IDI had information that the Fatah Al-Islamterrorist group was planning to attack UNIFIL before itblundered into its confrontation with the LAF. End Summary. Gaza Fighting Not Israel’s Main Problem--------------------------------------- آ¶2. (S) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol Couns and DATT,called on IDI Director Major General Amos Yadlin June 12.Noting reports of fierce fighting between Hamas and Fatah inGaza that day, the Ambassador asked for Yadlin’s assessment.Yadlin described Gaza as "not Israel’s main problem," notingthat it ranked fourth in his hierarchy of threats, behindIran, Syria, and Hizballah. Yadlin described Gaza as"hopeless for now," commenting that the Palestinians had torealize that Hamas offered no solution. IDI analysts, hesaid, had predicted a confrontation in Gaza since Hamas wonthe Palestinian Legislative Council elections in Januaryآ¶2006. Yadlin commented that Palestinian President MahmoudAbbas and Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh had becomepersonally close despite their ideological differences, butneither leader had control over those forces under them. آ¶3. (S) Yadlin explained that both Fatah and Hamas containedmany factions. The Hamas military wing had been frustratedsince the signing of the Mecca Agreement in January, butthere were also many armed groups in Gaza that were not underthe control of either party. Yadlin cited the example of theDughmush clan, which had shifted from Fatah to the PopularResistance Committees to Hamas before becoming an armedentity opposed to all of them. After May 15, the Hamasmilitary wing had sought to export the fighting to Sderot bylaunching waves of Qassam rockets. One week later, as aresult of IDF retaliation, they realized the price was toohigh and reduced the Qassam attacks. آ¶4. (S) In response to the Ambassador’s question, Yadlin saidhe did not think that day’s Hamas attacks on Fatah securityforces were part of a premeditated effort to wipe out Fatahin Gaza. Instead, they probably represented an initiative ofthe military wing with the tacit consent of Khalid Mishal inDamascus. Mishal was still considering the costs andbenefits of the fighting, but the situation had become sotense that any incident could lead to street fighting withoutany political decision. Gaza and West Bank Separating----------------------------- آ¶5. (S) The Ambassador asked Yadlin for his assessment ofreports that Fatah forces had been ordered not to fight back.Yadlin said Mohammed Dahlan had 500 men and the PresidentialGuard had 1,500 more. They understand that the balance ofpower favors Hamas, which "can take over Gaza any time itwants to." Yadlin said he would be surprised if Fatahfights, and even more surprised if they win. As far as hewas concerned, this had been the case for the past year. Thesituation was different in the West Bank, however, whereFatah remained relatively strong and had even started to TEL AVIV 00001733 002 OF 002 kidnap Hamas activists. Yadlin agreed that Tawfiq Tirawi hada power base in the West Bank, but he added that Fatah wasnot cohesive. آ¶6. (S) The Ambassador commented that if Fatah decided it haslost Gaza, there would be calls for Abbas to set up aseparate regime in the West Bank. While not necessarilyreflecting a consensus GOI view, Yadlin commented that such adevelopment would please Israel since it would enable the IDFto treat Gaza as a hostile country rather than having to dealwith Hamas as a non-state actor. He added that Israel couldwork with a Fatah regime in the West Bank. The Ambassadorasked Yadlin if he worried about a Hamas-controlled Gazagiving Iran a new opening. Yadlin replied that Iran wasalready present in Gaza, but Israel could handle thesituation "as long as Gaza does not have a port (sea or air)." War with Syria "Could Happen Easily"------------------------------------ آ¶7. (S) Noting Israeli press speculation, the Ambassadorasked Yadlin if he expected war with Syria this summer.Recalling the 1967 war, Yadlin commented that it had startedas a result of the Soviet Ambassador in Israel reporting onnon-existing Israeli preparations to attack Syria. Somethingsimilar was happening again, he said, with the Russianstelling the Syrians that Israel planned to attack them,possibly in concert with a U.S. attack on Iran. Yadlinstated that since last summer’s war in Lebanon, Syria hadengaged in a "frenzy of preparations" for a confrontationwith Israel. The Syrian regime was also showing greaterself-confidence. Some Syrian leaders appeared to believethat Syria could take on Israel military, but others weremore cautious. The fact that both sides were on high alertmeant that a war could happen easily, even though neitherside is seeking one. In response to a question, Yadlin saidhe did not think the Asad regime would survive a war, but headded that preserving that "evil" regime should not be amatter of concern. Fighting in Nahr al-Barid Positive for Israel--------------------------------------------- آ¶8. (S) The Ambassador asked Yadlin for his views on thefighting in the Nahr al-Barid refugee camp in northernLebanon. Although Yadlin was called to another meeting anddid not have time to elaborate, he answered that the fightingwas positive for Israel because it had embarrassed Hizballah,which had been unable to adopt a clear-cut position on theLebanese Army’s action, and because the Fatah al-Islamterrorist organization had been planning to attack UNIFIL andthen Israel before it blundered into its currentconfrontation with the LAF. He also agreed that theconfrontation was strengthening the LAF, in fact and in theeyes of the Lebanese people, which was also good. آ¶9. (S) Comment: Yadlin’s relatively relaxed attitude towardthe deteriorating security situation in Gaza represents ashift in IDF thinking from last fall, when the SouthernCommand supported a major ground operation into Gaza toremove the growing threat from Hamas. While many mediacommentators continue to make that argument, Yadlin’s viewappears to be more in synch with that of Chief of GeneralStaff Ashkenazi, who also believes that the more seriousthreat to Israel currently comes from the north. ********************************************* ********************Visit Embassy Tel Aviv’s Classified Website:http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department’sClassified SIPRNET website.********************************************* ********************JONES
